Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon features a polling lead for Moody amid the state's established Republican registration edge. Trader pricing clusters in the 7.75M–8.5M range because midterm special-election turnout typically falls below presidential levels, as seen in prior cycles, while remaining sensitive to early and mail ballot volume plus no-party-affiliation participation. Post-August primaries, campaign activity centers on get-out-the-vote operations and independent mobilization, with separation likely driven by shifts in enthusiasm gaps or last-minute registration trends ahead of November 3. Historical patterns and current polling averages support this moderate range without strong signals for significantly higher or lower totals.