Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might” holds the strongest position among the six nominees for Best R&B at the 2026 VMAs, buoyed by its No. 1 Billboard Hot 100 debut, robust streaming numbers, and Mars’ broader haul of nominations including Video of the Year. The mid-tempo funk-disco track’s polished production and retro video align with VMA voter preferences for visually compelling entries. Kehlani’s “Folded,” Justin Bieber’s “YUKON,” and the Dave & Tems collaboration “Raindance” trail with dedicated fanbases and solid R&B credentials that could sway the public vote, while the Mariah the Scientist & Kali Uchis duet and Chris Brown’s double-sided entry sit further back. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, chart trajectory, video impact, and late momentum from social engagement remain the key swing factors in this evenly contested field.