Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated PCE readings near 4%, underpins the 81.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next policy move. Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 31, stressing that financial conditions remain insufficiently restrictive and that further tightening may be required, shifted trader consensus toward tightening. With the target range held at 3.50-3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring an immediate increase, solid labor market data and resilient growth have limited support for easing. Attention now turns to the September 16 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI, PCE, and employment figures that could confirm or moderate the path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाबढ़ोतरी
82% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2028
बढ़ोतरी
82% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated PCE readings near 4%, underpins the 81.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next policy move. Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 31, stressing that financial conditions remain insufficiently restrictive and that further tightening may be required, shifted trader consensus toward tightening. With the target range held at 3.50-3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring an immediate increase, solid labor market data and resilient growth have limited support for easing. Attention now turns to the September 16 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI, PCE, and employment figures that could confirm or moderate the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,271समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2028बाज़ार खुला
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated PCE readings near 4%, underpins the 81.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next policy move. Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 31, stressing that financial conditions remain insufficiently restrictive and that further tightening may be required, shifted trader consensus toward tightening. With the target range held at 3.50-3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring an immediate increase, solid labor market data and resilient growth have limited support for easing. Attention now turns to the September 16 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI, PCE, and employment figures that could confirm or moderate the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$6,271समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2028बाज़ार खुला
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated PCE readings near 4%, underpins the 81.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next policy move. Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 31, stressing that financial conditions remain insufficiently restrictive and that further tightening may be required, shifted trader consensus toward tightening. With the target range held at 3.50-3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring an immediate increase, solid labor market data and resilient growth have limited support for easing. Attention now turns to the September 16 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI, PCE, and employment figures that could confirm or moderate the path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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