Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at its smallest level since the 1950s following prolonged drought and liquidation, remain the dominant driver keeping ground beef retail prices elevated near $6.70–$6.90 per pound through mid-2026. Fed-cattle values have held in the $220–$260 per hundredweight range, while lean grinding beef faces particular scarcity, prompting higher imports that recently received temporary tariff relief. Resilient consumer demand has supported these levels despite seasonal softening expected into fall. Herd rebuilding is projected to stay limited through 2027, with analysts seeing potential price moderation only later as supplies gradually expand; key near-term variables include feed costs, weather impacts on pastures, and further import policy adjustments.