Ulises Mejía Haro holds the strongest position among Morena aspirants in recent internal preference surveys from June and July 2026, with effective support reaching 37–44% and widening leads over Verónica Díaz Robles in multiple polls, while Morena maintains a statewide advantage near 36–38%. The unresolved party nomination process for the 2027 coalition ticket keeps probabilities clustered, as traders weigh Mejía Haro’s polling momentum and prior local executive experience against Díaz Robles’s Senate profile and territorial base. Fragmented opposition fields and low shares for other named contenders reflect limited paths outside the dominant party, with separation likely to emerge once Morena finalizes its coordinator and coalition partners ahead of the June 2027 vote.