Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in July 2026 after edging down from 4.2% in June, even as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%. Subdued hiring reflects slower labor supply growth from reduced net immigration and population aging, alongside modest demand amid AI-driven efficiency gains and policy uncertainty around tariffs and federal spending. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 projections placed the 2026 unemployment median at 4.3%, with the rate already beating that benchmark after peaking near 4.5% in late 2025. Traders are monitoring the upcoming August employment report and FOMC communications for signs of further softening that could push the 2026 peak higher, while contained layoffs and stable broader measures like U-6 at 7.9% support current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$486,710 Vol.
31 gen 2027
5,0%
7%
5,5%
5%
6,0%
7%
7,0%
5%
10,0%
5%
$486,710 Vol.
5,0%
$124,557 Vol.
7%
5,5%
$202,388 Vol.
5%
6,0%
$76,306 Vol.
7%
7,0%
$32,413 Vol.
5%
10,0%
$51,046 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in July 2026 after edging down from 4.2% in June, even as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%. Subdued hiring reflects slower labor supply growth from reduced net immigration and population aging, alongside modest demand amid AI-driven efficiency gains and policy uncertainty around tariffs and federal spending. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 projections placed the 2026 unemployment median at 4.3%, with the rate already beating that benchmark after peaking near 4.5% in late 2025. Traders are monitoring the upcoming August employment report and FOMC communications for signs of further softening that could push the 2026 peak higher, while contained layoffs and stable broader measures like U-6 at 7.9% support current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$486,710Data di fine
1 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in July 2026 after edging down from 4.2% in June, even as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%. Subdued hiring reflects slower labor supply growth from reduced net immigration and population aging, alongside modest demand amid AI-driven efficiency gains and policy uncertainty around tariffs and federal spending. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 projections placed the 2026 unemployment median at 4.3%, with the rate already beating that benchmark after peaking near 4.5% in late 2025. Traders are monitoring the upcoming August employment report and FOMC communications for signs of further softening that could push the 2026 peak higher, while contained layoffs and stable broader measures like U-6 at 7.9% support current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$486,710Data di fine
1 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in July 2026 after edging down from 4.2% in June, even as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%. Subdued hiring reflects slower labor supply growth from reduced net immigration and population aging, alongside modest demand amid AI-driven efficiency gains and policy uncertainty around tariffs and federal spending. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 projections placed the 2026 unemployment median at 4.3%, with the rate already beating that benchmark after peaking near 4.5% in late 2025. Traders are monitoring the upcoming August employment report and FOMC communications for signs of further softening that could push the 2026 peak higher, while contained layoffs and stable broader measures like U-6 at 7.9% support current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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