**The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated cases challenging AR-15-style rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the central driver of trader positioning.** Oral arguments are slated for the fall 2026 term, with a ruling expected by summer 2027. The 6-3 conservative majority has expanded Second Amendment protections since the 2022 Bruen decision, which requires modern restrictions to align with historical tradition and protects arms “in common use” for lawful purposes. Justice Kavanaugh’s prior statement highlighted the roughly 20–30 million AR-15s in circulation and their legality in 41 states, signaling openness to review. Lower courts upheld the bans, but petitioners argue these semiautomatic rifles qualify as protected common-use firearms under Heller and Bruen precedents. States counter that the weapons pose unique dangers, citing their use in mass shootings and military-style features. With four justices already on record favoring review and potential support from Roberts or Barrett, markets price a modest edge for invalidation while reflecting remaining uncertainty over swing votes and public-safety framing. No major new filings or statements have shifted the landscape since the cert grant.