Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead of 52–57 percent over Labor ahead of the November 28, 2026 election, supporting the elevated 80 percent market price. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following Premier Jacinta Allan’s late-July resignation and Ben Carroll’s ascension, while One Nation’s primary support near 23–27 percent has fragmented the vote without altering projected Coalition seat outcomes due to preference flows. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains stronger preferred-premier ratings in several surveys. These patterns, stable through August, explain trader consensus on a Liberal–National victory despite the closely contested primary landscape and three months remaining until polling day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLiberal–National 80%
Labor 19%
One Nation 2.7%
Greens <1%
$10,756 Vol.
$10,756 Vol.
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
80%
Labor
19%
One Nation
3%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 80%
Labor 19%
One Nation 2.7%
Greens <1%
$10,756 Vol.
$10,756 Vol.
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$6,390 Vol.
80%
Labor
$1,749 Vol.
19%
One Nation
$2,388 Vol.
3%
Greens
$229 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead of 52–57 percent over Labor ahead of the November 28, 2026 election, supporting the elevated 80 percent market price. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following Premier Jacinta Allan’s late-July resignation and Ben Carroll’s ascension, while One Nation’s primary support near 23–27 percent has fragmented the vote without altering projected Coalition seat outcomes due to preference flows. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains stronger preferred-premier ratings in several surveys. These patterns, stable through August, explain trader consensus on a Liberal–National victory despite the closely contested primary landscape and three months remaining until polling day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$10,756Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead of 52–57 percent over Labor ahead of the November 28, 2026 election, supporting the elevated 80 percent market price. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following Premier Jacinta Allan’s late-July resignation and Ben Carroll’s ascension, while One Nation’s primary support near 23–27 percent has fragmented the vote without altering projected Coalition seat outcomes due to preference flows. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains stronger preferred-premier ratings in several surveys. These patterns, stable through August, explain trader consensus on a Liberal–National victory despite the closely contested primary landscape and three months remaining until polling day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$10,756Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead of 52–57 percent over Labor ahead of the November 28, 2026 election, supporting the elevated 80 percent market price. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s following Premier Jacinta Allan’s late-July resignation and Ben Carroll’s ascension, while One Nation’s primary support near 23–27 percent has fragmented the vote without altering projected Coalition seat outcomes due to preference flows. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains stronger preferred-premier ratings in several surveys. These patterns, stable through August, explain trader consensus on a Liberal–National victory despite the closely contested primary landscape and three months remaining until polling day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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