Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her established incumbency since 2018, consistent reelection margins in a district with a D+3 Partisan Voter Index, and dominant August 2026 top-two primary performance where she secured over 53 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting its suburban and exurban character east of Seattle. Schrier also holds a substantial fundraising edge, with roughly $3 million raised compared to challenger Spencer Meline’s under $130,000. Republican candidates split the remaining primary vote, limiting unified opposition. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors currently anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$22,782 Vol.
$22,782 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Kim Schrier (D)
97%
Spencer Meline (R)
3%
$22,782 Vol.
$22,782 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Kim Schrier (D)
$9,594 Vol.
97%
Spencer Meline (R)
$13,188 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her established incumbency since 2018, consistent reelection margins in a district with a D+3 Partisan Voter Index, and dominant August 2026 top-two primary performance where she secured over 53 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting its suburban and exurban character east of Seattle. Schrier also holds a substantial fundraising edge, with roughly $3 million raised compared to challenger Spencer Meline’s under $130,000. Republican candidates split the remaining primary vote, limiting unified opposition. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors currently anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$22,782Data di fine
5 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her established incumbency since 2018, consistent reelection margins in a district with a D+3 Partisan Voter Index, and dominant August 2026 top-two primary performance where she secured over 53 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting its suburban and exurban character east of Seattle. Schrier also holds a substantial fundraising edge, with roughly $3 million raised compared to challenger Spencer Meline’s under $130,000. Republican candidates split the remaining primary vote, limiting unified opposition. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors currently anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,782Data di fine
5 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Kim Schrier’s commanding position in the WA-08 race stems from her established incumbency since 2018, consistent reelection margins in a district with a D+3 Partisan Voter Index, and dominant August 2026 top-two primary performance where she secured over 53 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting its suburban and exurban character east of Seattle. Schrier also holds a substantial fundraising edge, with roughly $3 million raised compared to challenger Spencer Meline’s under $130,000. Republican candidates split the remaining primary vote, limiting unified opposition. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, major candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though structural and resource factors currently anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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