Several Republican-held seats, including Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, and Iowa, along with the open Michigan contest, currently rank as the tightest 2026 Senate races according to polling averages and forecasters like Decision Desk HQ and the Economist model. A national environment favoring Democrats in generic ballot measures, combined with open seats from retirements in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire plus contentious Republican primaries in Texas and elsewhere, has narrowed projected margins in these states to toss-up status. Recent August-September polling shifts have moved the overall Senate control forecast to a pure toss-up, with traders pricing Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas highest for sub-1% finishes on November 3. Late-cycle events such as debates, turnout efforts in battleground states, and any shifts in the presidential approval environment could further compress or widen these margins before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
3 nov 2026
Ohio (Special)
53%
Maine
22%
Texas
19%
Michigan
17%
Alaska
17%
New Hampshire
17%
Minnesota
10%
Georgia
10%
North Carolina
7%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Iowa
37%
Nebraska
42%
Florida (Special)
46%
$2,912 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Vol.
53%
Maine
$18 Vol.
22%
Texas
$52 Vol.
19%
Michigan
$177 Vol.
17%
Alaska
$208 Vol.
17%
New Hampshire
$269 Vol.
17%
Minnesota
$109 Vol.
10%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
10%
North Carolina
$189 Vol.
7%
New Mexico
$274 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
Montana
$154 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
2%
Iowa
$100 Vol.
37%
Nebraska
$106 Vol.
42%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
46%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held seats, including Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, and Iowa, along with the open Michigan contest, currently rank as the tightest 2026 Senate races according to polling averages and forecasters like Decision Desk HQ and the Economist model. A national environment favoring Democrats in generic ballot measures, combined with open seats from retirements in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire plus contentious Republican primaries in Texas and elsewhere, has narrowed projected margins in these states to toss-up status. Recent August-September polling shifts have moved the overall Senate control forecast to a pure toss-up, with traders pricing Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas highest for sub-1% finishes on November 3. Late-cycle events such as debates, turnout efforts in battleground states, and any shifts in the presidential approval environment could further compress or widen these margins before Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,912Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held seats, including Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, and Iowa, along with the open Michigan contest, currently rank as the tightest 2026 Senate races according to polling averages and forecasters like Decision Desk HQ and the Economist model. A national environment favoring Democrats in generic ballot measures, combined with open seats from retirements in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire plus contentious Republican primaries in Texas and elsewhere, has narrowed projected margins in these states to toss-up status. Recent August-September polling shifts have moved the overall Senate control forecast to a pure toss-up, with traders pricing Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas highest for sub-1% finishes on November 3. Late-cycle events such as debates, turnout efforts in battleground states, and any shifts in the presidential approval environment could further compress or widen these margins before Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,912Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Several Republican-held seats, including Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, and Iowa, along with the open Michigan contest, currently rank as the tightest 2026 Senate races according to polling averages and forecasters like Decision Desk HQ and the Economist model. A national environment favoring Democrats in generic ballot measures, combined with open seats from retirements in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire plus contentious Republican primaries in Texas and elsewhere, has narrowed projected margins in these states to toss-up status. Recent August-September polling shifts have moved the overall Senate control forecast to a pure toss-up, with traders pricing Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas highest for sub-1% finishes on November 3. Late-cycle events such as debates, turnout efforts in battleground states, and any shifts in the presidential approval environment could further compress or widen these margins before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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