Recent polling and validated voter data from the 2024 election show Republican candidates captured roughly 12-15% of the Black vote, up from 8% in 2020, with stronger gains among Black men and younger voters on economic issues. By mid-2026, however, approval for Republican leadership among Black voters fell into the low teens amid concerns over inflation, unemployment, and policy actions including DEI rollbacks and redistricting. July 2026 Pew surveys indicate Democrats leading Republicans by 60 points among Black registered voters ahead of the midterms. These trends keep trader probabilities clustered tightly between 8% and 13%, with separation likely hinging on final turnout patterns and any late shifts in economic sentiment or candidate outreach before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10～11％ 26%
12〜13％ 22%
8〜9% 19%
8％未満 10%
新規
新規
2026/11/06
8％未満
10%
8〜9%
19%
10～11％
26%
12〜13％
22%
14〜15％
9%
16〜17％
6%
18％以上
3%
10～11％ 26%
12〜13％ 22%
8〜9% 19%
8％未満 10%
新規
新規
2026/11/06
8％未満
$20 Vol.
10%
8〜9%
$538 Vol.
19%
10～11％
$441 Vol.
26%
12〜13％
$351 Vol.
22%
14〜15％
$192 Vol.
9%
16〜17％
$20 Vol.
6%
18％以上
$91 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling and validated voter data from the 2024 election show Republican candidates captured roughly 12-15% of the Black vote, up from 8% in 2020, with stronger gains among Black men and younger voters on economic issues. By mid-2026, however, approval for Republican leadership among Black voters fell into the low teens amid concerns over inflation, unemployment, and policy actions including DEI rollbacks and redistricting. July 2026 Pew surveys indicate Democrats leading Republicans by 60 points among Black registered voters ahead of the midterms. These trends keep trader probabilities clustered tightly between 8% and 13%, with separation likely hinging on final turnout patterns and any late shifts in economic sentiment or candidate outreach before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
音量
$1,652終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling and validated voter data from the 2024 election show Republican candidates captured roughly 12-15% of the Black vote, up from 8% in 2020, with stronger gains among Black men and younger voters on economic issues. By mid-2026, however, approval for Republican leadership among Black voters fell into the low teens amid concerns over inflation, unemployment, and policy actions including DEI rollbacks and redistricting. July 2026 Pew surveys indicate Democrats leading Republicans by 60 points among Black registered voters ahead of the midterms. These trends keep trader probabilities clustered tightly between 8% and 13%, with separation likely hinging on final turnout patterns and any late shifts in economic sentiment or candidate outreach before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
音量
$1,652終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and validated voter data from the 2024 election show Republican candidates captured roughly 12-15% of the Black vote, up from 8% in 2020, with stronger gains among Black men and younger voters on economic issues. By mid-2026, however, approval for Republican leadership among Black voters fell into the low teens amid concerns over inflation, unemployment, and policy actions including DEI rollbacks and redistricting. July 2026 Pew surveys indicate Democrats leading Republicans by 60 points among Black registered voters ahead of the midterms. These trends keep trader probabilities clustered tightly between 8% and 13%, with separation likely hinging on final turnout patterns and any late shifts in economic sentiment or candidate outreach before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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