Recent National Weather Service forecasts and playa-adjacent observations indicate peak daytime highs for Black Rock Desert during the Aug. 30–Sept. 7 event settled in the mid-to-upper 80s°F, aligning with the market’s 90.5% implied probability for 87–88°F. A seasonal transition and passing cold front suppressed typical late-summer heat, keeping maximum temperatures near 84–88°F amid gusty winds and brief rain that further moderated readings. Official monitoring shows no exceedance of 90°F thresholds through early September. An unexpected late heat surge or localized measurement revision above 89°F could shift odds, though current model consensus and station data make such outcomes unlikely before event close.