Recent polling and forecasts have tightened several 2026 Senate contests into toss-ups, with Decision Desk HQ labeling Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa as the closest after shifting its overall Senate outlook to a pure 50-50 toss-up in early September. Democratic gains in summer surveys narrowed Republican advantages in these states, where candidates such as Susan Collins in Maine, Ken Paxton in Texas, and the nominees in Ohio and Alaska face opponents polling within single digits. North Carolina’s open seat and Michigan’s contest also remain competitive but with slightly wider projected margins. With Election Day on November 3, late-cycle polling shifts, turnout among independents in battlegrounds, and any October developments could determine which races finish inside 1 percent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ohio (Special)
53%
Iowa
23%
Maine
21%
New Hampshire
21%
Alaska
19%
Texas
19%
Michigan
16%
North Carolina
11%
Georgia
9%
Minnesota
8%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Nebraska
45%
Florida (Special)
46%
$2,553 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
53%
Iowa
23%
Maine
21%
New Hampshire
21%
Alaska
19%
Texas
19%
Michigan
16%
North Carolina
11%
Georgia
9%
Minnesota
8%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Nebraska
45%
Florida (Special)
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling and forecasts have tightened several 2026 Senate contests into toss-ups, with Decision Desk HQ labeling Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa as the closest after shifting its overall Senate outlook to a pure 50-50 toss-up in early September. Democratic gains in summer surveys narrowed Republican advantages in these states, where candidates such as Susan Collins in Maine, Ken Paxton in Texas, and the nominees in Ohio and Alaska face opponents polling within single digits. North Carolina’s open seat and Michigan’s contest also remain competitive but with slightly wider projected margins. With Election Day on November 3, late-cycle polling shifts, turnout among independents in battlegrounds, and any October developments could determine which races finish inside 1 percent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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