The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader expectations around a closely divided outcome. A 6-3 conservative majority, applying the Bruen historical-tradition test from 2022, appears poised to treat AR-15-style rifles as “arms in common use” protected by the Second Amendment, consistent with statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain the pivotal variables, though both joined recent rulings expanding gun rights. Oral arguments are set for the October 2026 term with a decision likely by June 2027; the late-August filing of the challengers’ opening brief has kept momentum for invalidation without shifting the narrow consensus reflected in current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?
SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?
56% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 1, 2027
56% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 1, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader expectations around a closely divided outcome. A 6-3 conservative majority, applying the Bruen historical-tradition test from 2022, appears poised to treat AR-15-style rifles as “arms in common use” protected by the Second Amendment, consistent with statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain the pivotal variables, though both joined recent rulings expanding gun rights. Oral arguments are set for the October 2026 term with a decision likely by June 2027; the late-August filing of the challengers’ opening brief has kept momentum for invalidation without shifting the narrow consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$4Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader expectations around a closely divided outcome. A 6-3 conservative majority, applying the Bruen historical-tradition test from 2022, appears poised to treat AR-15-style rifles as “arms in common use” protected by the Second Amendment, consistent with statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain the pivotal variables, though both joined recent rulings expanding gun rights. Oral arguments are set for the October 2026 term with a decision likely by June 2027; the late-August filing of the challengers’ opening brief has kept momentum for invalidation without shifting the narrow consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$4Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader expectations around a closely divided outcome. A 6-3 conservative majority, applying the Bruen historical-tradition test from 2022, appears poised to treat AR-15-style rifles as “arms in common use” protected by the Second Amendment, consistent with statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain the pivotal variables, though both joined recent rulings expanding gun rights. Oral arguments are set for the October 2026 term with a decision likely by June 2027; the late-August filing of the challengers’ opening brief has kept momentum for invalidation without shifting the narrow consensus reflected in current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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