Recent announcements from DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and border czar Tom Homan confirm an active ICE investigation into long-standing allegations of immigration fraud involving Rep. Ilhan Omar’s 2000 naturalization and 2009 marriage, with officials noting that proven misrepresentation on applications could support denaturalization and removal. Omar has consistently denied the claims. Despite these developments, traders assign only a 6% chance of deportation occurring in 2026 because denaturalization requires a successful DOJ civil suit in federal court under strict evidentiary standards, followed by separate removal proceedings. As a sitting member of Congress naturalized more than 25 years ago, Omar benefits from high procedural barriers, due-process protections, and the compressed timeline remaining in the calendar year. No charges or court filings have materialized, and comparable historical cases show extended litigation before any final outcome.