Traders assign over 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because its three simultaneous conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and at least nine successful Starship orbital flights—face steep independent hurdles through year-end. Elon Musk briefly crossed trillionaire status after SpaceX's June IPO but fell back below $900 billion amid a broad tech sell-off and SpaceX share lockups, with current valuations tied heavily to Tesla and SpaceX performance amid AI spending concerns. Starship launch cadence remains well below target due to technical and regulatory delays, while no credible reports indicate a new child. A sustained market rally in autonomous vehicles or energy storage, rapid Starship iteration, or personal announcement could theoretically align the legs, though each remains low-probability on current trajectories.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCombo Elon Bull Run
Combo Elon Bull Run
Sim
7% chance
$12,397 Vol.
$12,397 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
7% chance
$12,397 Vol.
$12,397 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign over 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because its three simultaneous conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and at least nine successful Starship orbital flights—face steep independent hurdles through year-end. Elon Musk briefly crossed trillionaire status after SpaceX's June IPO but fell back below $900 billion amid a broad tech sell-off and SpaceX share lockups, with current valuations tied heavily to Tesla and SpaceX performance amid AI spending concerns. Starship launch cadence remains well below target due to technical and regulatory delays, while no credible reports indicate a new child. A sustained market rally in autonomous vehicles or energy storage, rapid Starship iteration, or personal announcement could theoretically align the legs, though each remains low-probability on current trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$12,397Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign over 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because its three simultaneous conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and at least nine successful Starship orbital flights—face steep independent hurdles through year-end. Elon Musk briefly crossed trillionaire status after SpaceX's June IPO but fell back below $900 billion amid a broad tech sell-off and SpaceX share lockups, with current valuations tied heavily to Tesla and SpaceX performance amid AI spending concerns. Starship launch cadence remains well below target due to technical and regulatory delays, while no credible reports indicate a new child. A sustained market rally in autonomous vehicles or energy storage, rapid Starship iteration, or personal announcement could theoretically align the legs, though each remains low-probability on current trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$12,397Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign over 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because its three simultaneous conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and at least nine successful Starship orbital flights—face steep independent hurdles through year-end. Elon Musk briefly crossed trillionaire status after SpaceX's June IPO but fell back below $900 billion amid a broad tech sell-off and SpaceX share lockups, with current valuations tied heavily to Tesla and SpaceX performance amid AI spending concerns. Starship launch cadence remains well below target due to technical and regulatory delays, while no credible reports indicate a new child. A sustained market rally in autonomous vehicles or energy storage, rapid Starship iteration, or personal announcement could theoretically align the legs, though each remains low-probability on current trajectories.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions