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icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?

$14,364 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$14,364 Vol.

Polymarket

Abaixo de 5,20%

$1,558 Vol.

62%

Abaixo de 5,15%

$775 Vol.

56%

Abaixo de 5,10%

$1,844 Vol.

43%

Abaixo de 5,05%

$234 Vol.

38%

Abaixo de 5,00%

$1,930 Vol.

30%

Abaixo de 4,95%

$561 Vol.

27%

Abaixo de 4,90%

$1,189 Vol.

18%

Abaixo de 4,80%

$3,100 Vol.

14%

Abaixo de 4,60%

$3,173 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.30% as of September 21, 2026, after rising over 50 basis points year-to-date amid a Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike in mid-September and signals of additional tightening. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices, and heavy Treasury and corporate supply—particularly long-duration issuance tied to AI infrastructure—have lifted term premia and kept longer-dated yields near multi-year highs. Recent modest easing reflects falling crude and global bond-market relief, yet fiscal deficits and resilient growth continue to anchor expectations for limited downside. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, further FOMC communications, and any shifts in geopolitical tensions that could alter inflation or risk sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,364
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.30% as of September 21, 2026, after rising over 50 basis points year-to-date amid a Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike in mid-September and signals of additional tightening. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices, and heavy Treasury and corporate supply—particularly long-duration issuance tied to AI infrastructure—have lifted term premia and kept longer-dated yields near multi-year highs. Recent modest easing reflects falling crude and global bond-market relief, yet fiscal deficits and resilient growth continue to anchor expectations for limited downside. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, further FOMC communications, and any shifts in geopolitical tensions that could alter inflation or risk sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,364
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 5,20%" at 62%, followed by "Abaixo de 5,15%" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $14.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" is "Abaixo de 5,20%" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abaixo de 5,15%" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.