Israeli operations in southern Lebanon since March 2026 have emphasized airstrikes, artillery, tunnel demolitions, and limited ground incursions to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure while avoiding large-scale urban combat in Tyre. A US-brokered framework agreement and subsequent truce attempts since mid-April have constrained escalation, with recent Israeli actions focused on sites like Ali al-Taher heights and Tyre district villages such as Mansouri rather than the city municipality itself. Evacuation orders and strikes occurred in Tyre during June, yet no confirmed ground entry has followed despite ongoing occupation of other southern areas and stalled pilot-zone talks now delayed to October. Traders price low probabilities for entry by near-term deadlines, reflecting the high costs of urban fighting, Hezbollah defenses, civilian density, and diplomatic pressures favoring targeted operations over occupation.