Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely grouped behind her for the second position. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two candidates, sustain volatility in second-place probabilities. Trader pricing reflects this tightness, with Humberto Costa holding the highest implied chance for runner-up status. Developments that could widen gaps include final-week campaign momentum, endorsements from state-level figures, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHumberto Costa 44%
Mendonça Filho 33%
Marília Arraes 25.0%
Túlio Gadêlha 8.1%
$32,853 Vol.
$32,853 Vol.
4 out 2026
Humberto Costa
44%
Mendonça Filho
29%
Marília Arraes
20%
Túlio Gadêlha
8%
Eduardo da Fonte
5%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Humberto Costa 44%
Mendonça Filho 33%
Marília Arraes 25.0%
Túlio Gadêlha 8.1%
$32,853 Vol.
$32,853 Vol.
4 out 2026
Humberto Costa
$10,439 Vol.
44%
Mendonça Filho
$8,891 Vol.
29%
Marília Arraes
$5,880 Vol.
20%
Túlio Gadêlha
$1,435 Vol.
8%
Eduardo da Fonte
$1,694 Vol.
5%
Mariano Macedo
$806 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$834 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$829 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$629 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely grouped behind her for the second position. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two candidates, sustain volatility in second-place probabilities. Trader pricing reflects this tightness, with Humberto Costa holding the highest implied chance for runner-up status. Developments that could widen gaps include final-week campaign momentum, endorsements from state-level figures, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$32,853Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely grouped behind her for the second position. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two candidates, sustain volatility in second-place probabilities. Trader pricing reflects this tightness, with Humberto Costa holding the highest implied chance for runner-up status. Developments that could widen gaps include final-week campaign momentum, endorsements from state-level figures, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,853Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely grouped behind her for the second position. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two candidates, sustain volatility in second-place probabilities. Trader pricing reflects this tightness, with Humberto Costa holding the highest implied chance for runner-up status. Developments that could widen gaps include final-week campaign momentum, endorsements from state-level figures, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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