NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program drives the near-certain "No" consensus, shifting Artemis III to a low-Earth orbit demonstration flight in late 2027 focused on Orion rendezvous and docking tests with prototype Human Landing Systems from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon. The first crewed lunar landing now targets Artemis IV in 2028. Persistent technical hurdles, including cryogenic propulsion challenges, Starship refueling needs, and the May 2026 New Glenn explosion damaging Blue Origin's launchpad, have compounded delays confirmed in recent NASA updates. With only months left in 2026 and no alternative crewed missions positioned for success, traders see insurmountable barriers. Realistic swing factors remain negligible but could include unforeseen regulatory fast-tracking or breakthrough lander testing that somehow compresses timelines—scenarios viewed as highly improbable given ongoing schedule and safety risks flagged by inspectors.