Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization has sustained coordinated production policies and ministerial meetings through mid-year despite the UAE's May withdrawal over quota disputes and the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Core members including Saudi Arabia and Russia have reaffirmed output frameworks into 2027, while Iraq's reported quota concerns have not triggered further exits. Historical resilience to prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and others underpins the consensus that the cartel adapts rather than collapses. Late-year risks remain limited to additional national exits or escalated regional tensions that could fracture remaining unity before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОПЕК распадается в 2026 году?
ОПЕК распадается в 2026 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$34,792 Объем
$34,792 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$34,792 Объем
$34,792 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization has sustained coordinated production policies and ministerial meetings through mid-year despite the UAE's May withdrawal over quota disputes and the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Core members including Saudi Arabia and Russia have reaffirmed output frameworks into 2027, while Iraq's reported quota concerns have not triggered further exits. Historical resilience to prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and others underpins the consensus that the cartel adapts rather than collapses. Late-year risks remain limited to additional national exits or escalated regional tensions that could fracture remaining unity before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Объем
$34,792Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization has sustained coordinated production policies and ministerial meetings through mid-year despite the UAE's May withdrawal over quota disputes and the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Core members including Saudi Arabia and Russia have reaffirmed output frameworks into 2027, while Iraq's reported quota concerns have not triggered further exits. Historical resilience to prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and others underpins the consensus that the cartel adapts rather than collapses. Late-year risks remain limited to additional national exits or escalated regional tensions that could fracture remaining unity before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$34,792Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization has sustained coordinated production policies and ministerial meetings through mid-year despite the UAE's May withdrawal over quota disputes and the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Core members including Saudi Arabia and Russia have reaffirmed output frameworks into 2027, while Iraq's reported quota concerns have not triggered further exits. Historical resilience to prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and others underpins the consensus that the cartel adapts rather than collapses. Late-year risks remain limited to additional national exits or escalated regional tensions that could fracture remaining unity before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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