**The market's narrow lean toward "No" at 53.5% reflects the extreme difficulty of reaching 28 rushing touchdowns in the modern NFL, where run-heavy offenses and goal-line committees limit individual volume.** LaDainian Tomlinson's 2006 mark remains the benchmark, untouched since an era of higher per-game rushing attempts and fewer spread concepts. Entering the 2026 season, consensus projections for leading backs such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Bijan Robinson center on 9–14 rushing scores, well below the record pace. Contemporary offenses distribute carries across multiple backs, incorporate more passing in the red zone, and prioritize pass protection and receiving work, capping touchdown opportunities for any single player. Historical data shows only a handful of seasons with 20-plus rushing touchdowns since the mid-2000s, underscoring the structural barriers. **Competitive balance stems from the possibility of an outlier workhorse season—such as an injury-free campaign with 300-plus carries and elite red-zone efficiency for a player like Gibbs or Taylor—combined with uncertainty around offensive scheme changes or unexpected volume spikes.** Late injuries to primary backs, shifts in play-calling toward the run, or an extended schedule could elevate one contender's totals. Conversely, the pass-first league trends, shared backfields, and typical injury attrition reinforce the market's slight preference for the record standing. Preseason roster and injury developments will likely drive any near-term shifts in implied probability.