**Anthropic's active push toward an October 2026 Nasdaq listing drives the 94.2% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI.** The company confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1, secured a Nasdaq venue, arranged a substantial credit facility, and is advancing toward a mid-October roadshow and pre-midterm debut at valuations near $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety and alignment priorities, shifting its timeline to 2027 despite a June confidential filing. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed timelines and OpenAI’s explicit deferral, though last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in safety coordination could still alter outcomes for either large language model developer.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли IPO Anthropic или OpenAI первым?
Будет ли IPO Anthropic или OpenAI первым?
Anthropic
94% вероятность
$366,581 Объем
$366,581 Объем
30 дек. 2027 г.
Anthropic
94% вероятность
$366,581 Объем
$366,581 Объем
30 дек. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic's active push toward an October 2026 Nasdaq listing drives the 94.2% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI.** The company confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1, secured a Nasdaq venue, arranged a substantial credit facility, and is advancing toward a mid-October roadshow and pre-midterm debut at valuations near $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety and alignment priorities, shifting its timeline to 2027 despite a June confidential filing. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed timelines and OpenAI’s explicit deferral, though last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in safety coordination could still alter outcomes for either large language model developer.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Объем
$366,581Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic's active push toward an October 2026 Nasdaq listing drives the 94.2% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI.** The company confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1, secured a Nasdaq venue, arranged a substantial credit facility, and is advancing toward a mid-October roadshow and pre-midterm debut at valuations near $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety and alignment priorities, shifting its timeline to 2027 despite a June confidential filing. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed timelines and OpenAI’s explicit deferral, though last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in safety coordination could still alter outcomes for either large language model developer.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$366,581Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic's active push toward an October 2026 Nasdaq listing drives the 94.2% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI.** The company confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1, secured a Nasdaq venue, arranged a substantial credit facility, and is advancing toward a mid-October roadshow and pre-midterm debut at valuations near $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety and alignment priorities, shifting its timeline to 2027 despite a June confidential filing. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed timelines and OpenAI’s explicit deferral, though last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in safety coordination could still alter outcomes for either large language model developer.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Состоится ли первичное публичное размещение акций Anthropic в октябре 2026 года (ET)?
61%
Да
Anthropic или OpenAI: какая компания завершит IPO с большей рыночной капитализацией?
69%
Anthropic
Будет ли рыночная капитализация Anthropic составлять 600 млрд долларов США или больше к моменту закрытия рынка в день IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года?
96%
Да
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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