US officials have continued applying economic sanctions on Cuban military enterprises, nickel reserves, and state-linked entities through September 2026, alongside diplomatic contacts with Havana, rather than deploying forces for an invasion. Recent developments include stalled talks amid ongoing US pressure, Cuban economic reforms to attract investment, and repeated public statements from both sides emphasizing dialogue and sovereignty over military confrontation. With months remaining in the year and no large-scale troop movements or operational announcements reported, traders view an invasion as highly unlikely, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
$3,351,119 Объем
$3,351,119 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
$3,351,119 Объем
$3,351,119 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US officials have continued applying economic sanctions on Cuban military enterprises, nickel reserves, and state-linked entities through September 2026, alongside diplomatic contacts with Havana, rather than deploying forces for an invasion. Recent developments include stalled talks amid ongoing US pressure, Cuban economic reforms to attract investment, and repeated public statements from both sides emphasizing dialogue and sovereignty over military confrontation. With months remaining in the year and no large-scale troop movements or operational announcements reported, traders view an invasion as highly unlikely, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Объем
$3,351,119Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US officials have continued applying economic sanctions on Cuban military enterprises, nickel reserves, and state-linked entities through September 2026, alongside diplomatic contacts with Havana, rather than deploying forces for an invasion. Recent developments include stalled talks amid ongoing US pressure, Cuban economic reforms to attract investment, and repeated public statements from both sides emphasizing dialogue and sovereignty over military confrontation. With months remaining in the year and no large-scale troop movements or operational announcements reported, traders view an invasion as highly unlikely, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Объем
$3,351,119Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...US officials have continued applying economic sanctions on Cuban military enterprises, nickel reserves, and state-linked entities through September 2026, alongside diplomatic contacts with Havana, rather than deploying forces for an invasion. Recent developments include stalled talks amid ongoing US pressure, Cuban economic reforms to attract investment, and repeated public statements from both sides emphasizing dialogue and sovereignty over military confrontation. With months remaining in the year and no large-scale troop movements or operational announcements reported, traders view an invasion as highly unlikely, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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