August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
$15,902 ปริมาณ
$15,902 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
No
1.10–1.14ºC
No
1.15–1.19ºC
No
1.20–1.24ºC
No
1.25–1.29ºC
No
>1.29ºC
Yes
>1.29ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
$15,902 ปริมาณ
$15,902 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 ปริมาณ
No
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 ปริมาณ
No
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 ปริมาณ
No
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,199 ปริมาณ
No
1.25–1.29ºC
$4,398 ปริมาณ
No
>1.29ºC
$6,308 ปริมาณ
Yes
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,902วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,902วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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