Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show Bündnis 90/Die Grünen stable at 15–16 percent, with the latest ZDF and ARD surveys both placing the party at 16 percent. This positioning reflects modest losses from their 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat election amid a crowded field where Die Linke and the CDU lead narrowly and the AfD sits close behind. Traders appear to view the 14–17 percent bucket as the most probable outcome given the consistent polling range and limited late movement for the Greens, while the slim odds on 20 percent or higher reflect the structural headwinds from voter fragmentation and competition for progressive and centrist support. Possible red-green-red or Jamaica-style coalitions could still hinge on whether the Greens clear or exceed the upper end of current estimates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว14-17% 45%
17-20% 32%
<14% 24%
20%+ 3.5%
$36,867 ปริมาณ
$36,867 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
24%
14-17%
45%
17-20%
32%
20%+
4%
14-17% 45%
17-20% 32%
<14% 24%
20%+ 3.5%
$36,867 ปริมาณ
$36,867 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
$18,380 ปริมาณ
24%
14-17%
$12,826 ปริมาณ
45%
17-20%
$4,472 ปริมาณ
32%
20%+
$1,192 ปริมาณ
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show Bündnis 90/Die Grünen stable at 15–16 percent, with the latest ZDF and ARD surveys both placing the party at 16 percent. This positioning reflects modest losses from their 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat election amid a crowded field where Die Linke and the CDU lead narrowly and the AfD sits close behind. Traders appear to view the 14–17 percent bucket as the most probable outcome given the consistent polling range and limited late movement for the Greens, while the slim odds on 20 percent or higher reflect the structural headwinds from voter fragmentation and competition for progressive and centrist support. Possible red-green-red or Jamaica-style coalitions could still hinge on whether the Greens clear or exceed the upper end of current estimates.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,867วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show Bündnis 90/Die Grünen stable at 15–16 percent, with the latest ZDF and ARD surveys both placing the party at 16 percent. This positioning reflects modest losses from their 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat election amid a crowded field where Die Linke and the CDU lead narrowly and the AfD sits close behind. Traders appear to view the 14–17 percent bucket as the most probable outcome given the consistent polling range and limited late movement for the Greens, while the slim odds on 20 percent or higher reflect the structural headwinds from voter fragmentation and competition for progressive and centrist support. Possible red-green-red or Jamaica-style coalitions could still hinge on whether the Greens clear or exceed the upper end of current estimates.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,867วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show Bündnis 90/Die Grünen stable at 15–16 percent, with the latest ZDF and ARD surveys both placing the party at 16 percent. This positioning reflects modest losses from their 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat election amid a crowded field where Die Linke and the CDU lead narrowly and the AfD sits close behind. Traders appear to view the 14–17 percent bucket as the most probable outcome given the consistent polling range and limited late movement for the Greens, while the slim odds on 20 percent or higher reflect the structural headwinds from voter fragmentation and competition for progressive and centrist support. Possible red-green-red or Jamaica-style coalitions could still hinge on whether the Greens clear or exceed the upper end of current estimates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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