Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has anchored trader sentiment around mid-September dates, with probabilities clustered tightly between 35% and 40% for the 15th–18th. The 2.1-trillion-parameter large language model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data on top of Grok 4.6’s August 12 release, faces a pattern of repeated timeline slips since July targets. Competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month adds urgency, while xAI’s history of rapid iteration suggests the final rollout could still accelerate if tuning completes quickly. Traders appear to weigh these refinement risks against Musk’s prior “few more days” signal when pricing the narrow spread across early-to-mid September outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSeptember 17 39.6%
September 15 39.4%
September 16 37.8%
September 28 7.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
31%
September 13
35%
September 14
32%
September 15
39%
September 16
38%
September 17
40%
September 18
39%
September 19
1%
September 20
<1%
September 21
27%
September 22
3%
September 23
6%
September 24
3%
September 25
<1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
7%
September 29
2%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
<1%
September 17 39.6%
September 15 39.4%
September 16 37.8%
September 28 7.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
$558 ปริมาณ
31%
September 13
$541 ปริมาณ
35%
September 14
$205 ปริมาณ
32%
September 15
$257 ปริมาณ
39%
September 16
$215 ปริมาณ
38%
September 17
$215 ปริมาณ
40%
September 18
$437 ปริมาณ
39%
September 19
$638 ปริมาณ
1%
September 20
$523 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 21
$558 ปริมาณ
27%
September 22
$353 ปริมาณ
3%
September 23
$580 ปริมาณ
6%
September 24
$353 ปริมาณ
3%
September 25
$510 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 26
$513 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 27
$513 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 28
$461 ปริมาณ
7%
September 29
$387 ปริมาณ
2%
September 30
$515 ปริมาณ
1%
No release by September 30
$513 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has anchored trader sentiment around mid-September dates, with probabilities clustered tightly between 35% and 40% for the 15th–18th. The 2.1-trillion-parameter large language model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data on top of Grok 4.6’s August 12 release, faces a pattern of repeated timeline slips since July targets. Competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month adds urgency, while xAI’s history of rapid iteration suggests the final rollout could still accelerate if tuning completes quickly. Traders appear to weigh these refinement risks against Musk’s prior “few more days” signal when pricing the narrow spread across early-to-mid September outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,664วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has anchored trader sentiment around mid-September dates, with probabilities clustered tightly between 35% and 40% for the 15th–18th. The 2.1-trillion-parameter large language model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data on top of Grok 4.6’s August 12 release, faces a pattern of repeated timeline slips since July targets. Competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month adds urgency, while xAI’s history of rapid iteration suggests the final rollout could still accelerate if tuning completes quickly. Traders appear to weigh these refinement risks against Musk’s prior “few more days” signal when pricing the narrow spread across early-to-mid September outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,664วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has anchored trader sentiment around mid-September dates, with probabilities clustered tightly between 35% and 40% for the 15th–18th. The 2.1-trillion-parameter large language model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data on top of Grok 4.6’s August 12 release, faces a pattern of repeated timeline slips since July targets. Competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month adds urgency, while xAI’s history of rapid iteration suggests the final rollout could still accelerate if tuning completes quickly. Traders appear to weigh these refinement risks against Musk’s prior “few more days” signal when pricing the narrow spread across early-to-mid September outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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