**The Tongatapu 2 by-election, scheduled for 8 October 2026, features a crowded field of nine independent candidates following the unseating of former MP Semisi Sika over electoral violations from the 2025 general election.** Nominations closed in early September, with several prospective entrants withdrawing to back Malakai Koloamatangi, contributing to his leading trader-implied probability near 37 percent. Other contenders, including 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki, and Samiuela Vea, draw support from distinct village bases in areas such as Kolofo’ou, Haveluloto, and Fanga ‘o Pilolevu. The absence of the prior runner-up 'Uhilamoelangi Fasi and the multi-candidate split have kept probabilities tightly clustered, with no single frontrunner commanding a clear path under first-past-the-post rules. Further endorsements, campaign visibility in the remaining weeks, or turnout patterns among urban voters could shift the balance before polling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSione Harvard Tupouniua 26.1%
Alvin Lafu Sika 16%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila 15.9%
Samiuela Vea 14%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
13%
Alvin Lafu Sika
16%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
19%
Samiuela Vea
10%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
12%
Lei Paasi
12%
Mounu Uaisele
7%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
19%
'Olioni Manoa
8%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua 26.1%
Alvin Lafu Sika 16%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila 15.9%
Samiuela Vea 14%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
13%
Alvin Lafu Sika
16%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
19%
Samiuela Vea
10%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
12%
Lei Paasi
12%
Mounu Uaisele
7%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
19%
'Olioni Manoa
8%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**The Tongatapu 2 by-election, scheduled for 8 October 2026, features a crowded field of nine independent candidates following the unseating of former MP Semisi Sika over electoral violations from the 2025 general election.** Nominations closed in early September, with several prospective entrants withdrawing to back Malakai Koloamatangi, contributing to his leading trader-implied probability near 37 percent. Other contenders, including 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki, and Samiuela Vea, draw support from distinct village bases in areas such as Kolofo’ou, Haveluloto, and Fanga ‘o Pilolevu. The absence of the prior runner-up 'Uhilamoelangi Fasi and the multi-candidate split have kept probabilities tightly clustered, with no single frontrunner commanding a clear path under first-past-the-post rules. Further endorsements, campaign visibility in the remaining weeks, or turnout patterns among urban voters could shift the balance before polling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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