The 93% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 stems primarily from the Trump administration’s sustained reliance on economic coercion, secondary sanctions, and fuel shipment restrictions that have intensified shortages without crossing into direct military action. Pentagon planners examined limited intervention options earlier in the year, yet officials have repeatedly described these as contingency reviews rather than active preparations, constrained by commitments elsewhere and the November 2026 midterms. Diplomatic contacts have occurred, including high-level meetings, but remain stalled over reform demands, while Cuban leaders continue to signal openness to negotiations. These dynamics align with historical patterns favoring non-kinetic pressure against the island and leave scant evidence of imminent escalation before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,350,562 ปริมาณ
$3,350,562 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,350,562 ปริมาณ
$3,350,562 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The 93% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 stems primarily from the Trump administration’s sustained reliance on economic coercion, secondary sanctions, and fuel shipment restrictions that have intensified shortages without crossing into direct military action. Pentagon planners examined limited intervention options earlier in the year, yet officials have repeatedly described these as contingency reviews rather than active preparations, constrained by commitments elsewhere and the November 2026 midterms. Diplomatic contacts have occurred, including high-level meetings, but remain stalled over reform demands, while Cuban leaders continue to signal openness to negotiations. These dynamics align with historical patterns favoring non-kinetic pressure against the island and leave scant evidence of imminent escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,350,562วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The 93% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 stems primarily from the Trump administration’s sustained reliance on economic coercion, secondary sanctions, and fuel shipment restrictions that have intensified shortages without crossing into direct military action. Pentagon planners examined limited intervention options earlier in the year, yet officials have repeatedly described these as contingency reviews rather than active preparations, constrained by commitments elsewhere and the November 2026 midterms. Diplomatic contacts have occurred, including high-level meetings, but remain stalled over reform demands, while Cuban leaders continue to signal openness to negotiations. These dynamics align with historical patterns favoring non-kinetic pressure against the island and leave scant evidence of imminent escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,350,562วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The 93% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 stems primarily from the Trump administration’s sustained reliance on economic coercion, secondary sanctions, and fuel shipment restrictions that have intensified shortages without crossing into direct military action. Pentagon planners examined limited intervention options earlier in the year, yet officials have repeatedly described these as contingency reviews rather than active preparations, constrained by commitments elsewhere and the November 2026 midterms. Diplomatic contacts have occurred, including high-level meetings, but remain stalled over reform demands, while Cuban leaders continue to signal openness to negotiations. These dynamics align with historical patterns favoring non-kinetic pressure against the island and leave scant evidence of imminent escalation before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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