NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact through the end of 2026. Objects in the 10–20 meter diameter range that could deliver this energy remain difficult to detect far in advance, yet the background rate from fireball databases averages roughly 1–2 percent annually. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying events recorded in the JPL Fireball repository, trader consensus at 97.2 percent “No” reflects both the absence of catalogued threats and historical rarity. The main residual uncertainty stems from the small fraction of undiscovered impactors that could still arrive undetected before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
3% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
3% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact through the end of 2026. Objects in the 10–20 meter diameter range that could deliver this energy remain difficult to detect far in advance, yet the background rate from fireball databases averages roughly 1–2 percent annually. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying events recorded in the JPL Fireball repository, trader consensus at 97.2 percent “No” reflects both the absence of catalogued threats and historical rarity. The main residual uncertainty stems from the small fraction of undiscovered impactors that could still arrive undetected before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact through the end of 2026. Objects in the 10–20 meter diameter range that could deliver this energy remain difficult to detect far in advance, yet the background rate from fireball databases averages roughly 1–2 percent annually. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying events recorded in the JPL Fireball repository, trader consensus at 97.2 percent “No” reflects both the absence of catalogued threats and historical rarity. The main residual uncertainty stems from the small fraction of undiscovered impactors that could still arrive undetected before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact through the end of 2026. Objects in the 10–20 meter diameter range that could deliver this energy remain difficult to detect far in advance, yet the background rate from fireball databases averages roughly 1–2 percent annually. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying events recorded in the JPL Fireball repository, trader consensus at 97.2 percent “No” reflects both the absence of catalogued threats and historical rarity. The main residual uncertainty stems from the small fraction of undiscovered impactors that could still arrive undetected before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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