Early September 2026 temperatures across much of the northern U.S. remain well above freezing, with no measurable snowfall recorded yet at key National Weather Service stations such as Chicago O’Hare or Detroit. Long-range guidance from NOAA and climatological normals points to a milder-than-average fall in many areas, which could push the first 0.1-inch accumulation later than median dates of early-to-mid November for Midwest and Northeast cities. A strengthening El Niño pattern adds uncertainty to steering and temperature outlooks. Traders will watch upcoming seasonal forecast updates and early cold-air outbreaks for shifts in implied probabilities ahead of typical first-snow windows.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
35%

Denver, CO by October 31
60%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
58%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
57%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
91%

Chicago, IL by November 15
64%

Denver, CO by November 15
74%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
77%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
72%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
66%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
77%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
67%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
81%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
68%

Washington, DC by November 30
34%
$6,992 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
35%

Denver, CO by October 31
60%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
58%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
57%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
91%

Chicago, IL by November 15
64%

Denver, CO by November 15
74%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
77%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
72%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
66%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
77%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
67%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
81%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
68%

Washington, DC by November 30
34%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Early September 2026 temperatures across much of the northern U.S. remain well above freezing, with no measurable snowfall recorded yet at key National Weather Service stations such as Chicago O’Hare or Detroit. Long-range guidance from NOAA and climatological normals points to a milder-than-average fall in many areas, which could push the first 0.1-inch accumulation later than median dates of early-to-mid November for Midwest and Northeast cities. A strengthening El Niño pattern adds uncertainty to steering and temperature outlooks. Traders will watch upcoming seasonal forecast updates and early cold-air outbreaks for shifts in implied probabilities ahead of typical first-snow windows.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update

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