**Trader sentiment heavily favors "Under" at 98.3% implied probability because recent secondary-market data for Mega Dragonite ex variants from the 2026 Ascended Heroes set show raw prices clustered well below the $705.60 threshold.** Multiple tracked printings—including the Mega Attack Rare (#271/217) and standard holofoil versions—trade in the $5–$40 range as of late August, with hyper-rare or special illustration versions around $200–$300 at most. Aggregators like TCGIndex, PokeScope, and TCGPlayer reflect this through verified recent sales and listings updated within the past week, confirming a clear downward trajectory from early-2026 peaks near or above $650–$900 for chase copies. Primary drivers include strong initial print runs that increased supply, typical post-release price depreciation for modern Pokémon TCG cards, and consistent liquidity showing no sustained buyer support at higher levels. Historical patterns in the set reinforce that even premium variants stabilize far under four figures once the hype cycle fades. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited on resolution day. A sudden surge would require an unexpected catalyst such as a major grading population report revealing extreme scarcity in top grades (e.g., PSA 10) or viral collector demand, but current volume and price trends make this improbable. The market's near-certainty reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on verifiable sales data rather than speculation.