**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateTX-22 House Election Winner
TX-22 House Election Winner
$26,537 Vol.
$26,537 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Trever Nehls (R)
93%
Marquette Greene-Scott (D)
8%
$26,537 Vol.
$26,537 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Trever Nehls (R)
$16,948 Vol.
93%
Marquette Greene-Scott (D)
$9,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters.
While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,537Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters.
While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,537Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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