**U.S. nuclear testing policy remains anchored in the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive detonations planned or executed.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright that activities would involve subcritical experiments and delivery-system tests consistent with the zero-yield standard. U.S. officials and laboratory assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield underground tests, while budget requests and planning documents focus on stockpile stewardship enhancements. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit probabilities for any test by late 2026 aligns with repeated official statements distinguishing non-explosive work from fission or fusion detonations, amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and absence of verified U.S. explosive activity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
Nuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
$794,314 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Setyembre 30, 2026
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
5%
$794,314 Vol.
Setyembre 30, 2026
$57,546 Vol.
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
$75,957 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear testing policy remains anchored in the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive detonations planned or executed.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright that activities would involve subcritical experiments and delivery-system tests consistent with the zero-yield standard. U.S. officials and laboratory assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield underground tests, while budget requests and planning documents focus on stockpile stewardship enhancements. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit probabilities for any test by late 2026 aligns with repeated official statements distinguishing non-explosive work from fission or fusion detonations, amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and absence of verified U.S. explosive activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,314Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear testing policy remains anchored in the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive detonations planned or executed.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright that activities would involve subcritical experiments and delivery-system tests consistent with the zero-yield standard. U.S. officials and laboratory assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield underground tests, while budget requests and planning documents focus on stockpile stewardship enhancements. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit probabilities for any test by late 2026 aligns with repeated official statements distinguishing non-explosive work from fission or fusion detonations, amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and absence of verified U.S. explosive activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,314Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear testing policy remains anchored in the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive detonations planned or executed.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright that activities would involve subcritical experiments and delivery-system tests consistent with the zero-yield standard. U.S. officials and laboratory assessments continue to affirm no technical requirement for full-yield underground tests, while budget requests and planning documents focus on stockpile stewardship enhancements. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit probabilities for any test by late 2026 aligns with repeated official statements distinguishing non-explosive work from fission or fusion detonations, amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and absence of verified U.S. explosive activity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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