Mary Peltola leads trader consensus in the 2026 Alaska Senate race at 66.5% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan at 34%, following the August 18 nonpartisan primary where she advanced first with nearly 50% of the vote. Recent late-August surveys from Alaska Survey Research show her narrowly ahead or tied with Sullivan in a contest conducted under ranked-choice voting. Peltola has also posted stronger fundraising totals and maintained consistent polling support since entering the race. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Alaska’s Republican lean but faces a competitive environment where RCV mechanics and independent voter preferences have narrowed margins in prior cycles. Minor candidates, including a same-named Republican challenger, cleared the primary but hold negligible general-election support. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.