Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus around Mullin's position. Mullin has held the seat since 2023 with prior general election shares exceeding 70%, while Hoelter, a first-time challenger, reported no campaign fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the November general as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though structural and resource imbalances make such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$122,366 Обс.
$122,366 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
<1%
$122,366 Обс.
$122,366 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
$94,061 Обс.
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
$28,305 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus around Mullin's position. Mullin has held the seat since 2023 with prior general election shares exceeding 70%, while Hoelter, a first-time challenger, reported no campaign fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the November general as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though structural and resource imbalances make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$122,366Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus around Mullin's position. Mullin has held the seat since 2023 with prior general election shares exceeding 70%, while Hoelter, a first-time challenger, reported no campaign fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the November general as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though structural and resource imbalances make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$122,366Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus around Mullin's position. Mullin has held the seat since 2023 with prior general election shares exceeding 70%, while Hoelter, a first-time challenger, reported no campaign fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the November general as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though structural and resource imbalances make such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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