Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads recent polling for the October 2026 Federal District election. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed her at 34% against José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 20% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 13%, with all other candidates below 4%. Earlier Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas results indicated a similar or tighter gap between Leão and Arruda. Leão benefits from her center-right coalition, including PP and União Brasil support plus potential alignment with PL figures, while Arruda faces ongoing questions over past convictions that could affect ballot access. Trader pricing on the market tracks these polling trends and incumbency dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFederal District Governor Election Winner
Federal District Governor Election Winner
Celina Leão 76%
Arruda 20.1%
Elisson 2.6%
Cappelli 2.3%
$10,924 Обс.
$10,924 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Celina Leão
76%
Arruda
20%
Elisson
3%
Cappelli
2%
Professora Samara Mineiro
2%
Paula Belmonte
2%
Kiko Caputo
1%
Professor Robson
1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Leandro Grass
<1%
Celina Leão 76%
Arruda 20.1%
Elisson 2.6%
Cappelli 2.3%
$10,924 Обс.
$10,924 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Celina Leão
$7,713 Обс.
76%
Arruda
$899 Обс.
20%
Elisson
$329 Обс.
3%
Cappelli
$289 Обс.
2%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$257 Обс.
2%
Paula Belmonte
$310 Обс.
2%
Kiko Caputo
$274 Обс.
1%
Professor Robson
$296 Обс.
1%
Expedito Mendonça
$289 Обс.
<1%
Leandro Grass
$268 Обс.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads recent polling for the October 2026 Federal District election. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed her at 34% against José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 20% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 13%, with all other candidates below 4%. Earlier Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas results indicated a similar or tighter gap between Leão and Arruda. Leão benefits from her center-right coalition, including PP and União Brasil support plus potential alignment with PL figures, while Arruda faces ongoing questions over past convictions that could affect ballot access. Trader pricing on the market tracks these polling trends and incumbency dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,924Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads recent polling for the October 2026 Federal District election. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed her at 34% against José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 20% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 13%, with all other candidates below 4%. Earlier Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas results indicated a similar or tighter gap between Leão and Arruda. Leão benefits from her center-right coalition, including PP and União Brasil support plus potential alignment with PL figures, while Arruda faces ongoing questions over past convictions that could affect ballot access. Trader pricing on the market tracks these polling trends and incumbency dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$10,924Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads recent polling for the October 2026 Federal District election. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed her at 34% against José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 20% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 13%, with all other candidates below 4%. Earlier Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas results indicated a similar or tighter gap between Leão and Arruda. Leão benefits from her center-right coalition, including PP and União Brasil support plus potential alignment with PL figures, while Arruda faces ongoing questions over past convictions that could affect ballot access. Trader pricing on the market tracks these polling trends and incumbency dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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