Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established voter base in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 contest, even after Republican-led redistricting in May 2026 shifted the district’s lines entirely within the county and created a more competitive map. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote and has drawn national GOP support, yet an early July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%. Mixed race ratings from forecasters—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic or Republican—reflect uncertainty over turnout and whether the new boundaries will overcome the Democrat’s historical overperformance. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$41,742 Обс.
$41,742 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
34%
$41,742 Обс.
$41,742 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
$21,658 Обс.
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
$20,084 Обс.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established voter base in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 contest, even after Republican-led redistricting in May 2026 shifted the district’s lines entirely within the county and created a more competitive map. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote and has drawn national GOP support, yet an early July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%. Mixed race ratings from forecasters—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic or Republican—reflect uncertainty over turnout and whether the new boundaries will overcome the Democrat’s historical overperformance. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Обсяг
$41,742Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established voter base in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 contest, even after Republican-led redistricting in May 2026 shifted the district’s lines entirely within the county and created a more competitive map. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote and has drawn national GOP support, yet an early July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%. Mixed race ratings from forecasters—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic or Republican—reflect uncertainty over turnout and whether the new boundaries will overcome the Democrat’s historical overperformance. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$41,742Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Castor’s incumbency and established voter base in Hillsborough County underpin her 63.5% implied probability in the FL-14 contest, even after Republican-led redistricting in May 2026 shifted the district’s lines entirely within the county and created a more competitive map. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote and has drawn national GOP support, yet an early July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%. Mixed race ratings from forecasters—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic or Republican—reflect uncertainty over turnout and whether the new boundaries will overcome the Democrat’s historical overperformance. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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