Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 26 points in 2024 and independent forecasts rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while George McDermott advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Ivey's established fundraising advantage, committee roles, and alignment with the district's partisan composition underpin trader consensus around his high probability of reelection on November 3. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$47,101 Обс.
$47,101 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
97%
George McDermott (R)
<1%
$47,101 Обс.
$47,101 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
$21,397 Обс.
97%
George McDermott (R)
$25,705 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 26 points in 2024 and independent forecasts rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while George McDermott advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Ivey's established fundraising advantage, committee roles, and alignment with the district's partisan composition underpin trader consensus around his high probability of reelection on November 3. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$47,101Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 26 points in 2024 and independent forecasts rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while George McDermott advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Ivey's established fundraising advantage, committee roles, and alignment with the district's partisan composition underpin trader consensus around his high probability of reelection on November 3. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$47,101Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 26 points in 2024 and independent forecasts rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while George McDermott advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Ivey's established fundraising advantage, committee roles, and alignment with the district's partisan composition underpin trader consensus around his high probability of reelection on November 3. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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