Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds remain the focus of trader attention for potential sub-1% margins, including open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa alongside incumbents in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. Recent Decision Desk HQ and polling-aggregate updates have shifted the overall Senate outlook to a pure toss-up, driven by Democratic gains in generic-ballot averages and tightening state-level numbers in those contests. Open-seat dynamics, primary outcomes, and modest national headwinds for the president's party continue to compress margins in these races, while most other contests show wider projected spreads. With the November 3 election approaching, late-cycle polling shifts or turnout variations in these states could still alter which, if any, finish within 1 point.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
53%
Iowa
23%
Maine
21%
New Hampshire
21%
Texas
19%
Alaska
19%
Michigan
16%
North Carolina
11%
Georgia
9%
Minnesota
6%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Nebraska
47%
Florida (Special)
46%
$2,562 Обс.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Обс.
53%
Iowa
$100 Обс.
23%
Maine
$0 Обс.
21%
New Hampshire
$116 Обс.
21%
Texas
$52 Обс.
19%
Alaska
$208 Обс.
19%
Michigan
$177 Обс.
16%
North Carolina
$10 Обс.
11%
Georgia
$0 Обс.
9%
Minnesota
$109 Обс.
6%
New Mexico
$274 Обс.
4%
Colorado
$945 Обс.
4%
Montana
$154 Обс.
3%
Virginia
$157 Обс.
2%
Nebraska
$106 Обс.
47%
Florida (Special)
$70 Обс.
46%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds remain the focus of trader attention for potential sub-1% margins, including open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa alongside incumbents in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. Recent Decision Desk HQ and polling-aggregate updates have shifted the overall Senate outlook to a pure toss-up, driven by Democratic gains in generic-ballot averages and tightening state-level numbers in those contests. Open-seat dynamics, primary outcomes, and modest national headwinds for the president's party continue to compress margins in these races, while most other contests show wider projected spreads. With the November 3 election approaching, late-cycle polling shifts or turnout variations in these states could still alter which, if any, finish within 1 point.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,562Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds remain the focus of trader attention for potential sub-1% margins, including open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa alongside incumbents in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. Recent Decision Desk HQ and polling-aggregate updates have shifted the overall Senate outlook to a pure toss-up, driven by Democratic gains in generic-ballot averages and tightening state-level numbers in those contests. Open-seat dynamics, primary outcomes, and modest national headwinds for the president's party continue to compress margins in these races, while most other contests show wider projected spreads. With the November 3 election approaching, late-cycle polling shifts or turnout variations in these states could still alter which, if any, finish within 1 point.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$2,562Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds remain the focus of trader attention for potential sub-1% margins, including open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa alongside incumbents in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. Recent Decision Desk HQ and polling-aggregate updates have shifted the overall Senate outlook to a pure toss-up, driven by Democratic gains in generic-ballot averages and tightening state-level numbers in those contests. Open-seat dynamics, primary outcomes, and modest national headwinds for the president's party continue to compress margins in these races, while most other contests show wider projected spreads. With the November 3 election approaching, late-cycle polling shifts or turnout variations in these states could still alter which, if any, finish within 1 point.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання