Apple’s decision to deprioritize a next-generation Vision Pro explains the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Multiple credible reports from May and June 2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, state that the company has placed the headset category “on ice,” canceling the lighter Vision Air project and redirecting resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Persistent challenges with the original model’s weight, cost, and mixed reception have required a fundamental redesign—such as relocating the processor externally—that cannot be completed before 2028 at the earliest. While an unexpected engineering breakthrough or intensified competitive pressure could accelerate timelines, the current development gap and supply-chain signals make a launch in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable.