Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's R+8 to R+9 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 15.5-point Trump margin in 2024. Obernolte advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democratic challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%, while independent forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of competitive polling further reinforce trader consensus. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include a national Democratic wave, significant late-breaking developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-23 House Election Winner
CA-23 House Election Winner
$60,815 KL.
$60,815 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$60,815 KL.
$60,815 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$28,654 KL.
93%
Democratic Party
$32,161 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's R+8 to R+9 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 15.5-point Trump margin in 2024. Obernolte advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democratic challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%, while independent forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of competitive polling further reinforce trader consensus. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include a national Democratic wave, significant late-breaking developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$60,815Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's R+8 to R+9 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 15.5-point Trump margin in 2024. Obernolte advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democratic challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%, while independent forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of competitive polling further reinforce trader consensus. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include a national Democratic wave, significant late-breaking developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$60,815Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's R+8 to R+9 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 15.5-point Trump margin in 2024. Obernolte advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democratic challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%, while independent forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of competitive polling further reinforce trader consensus. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited but include a national Democratic wave, significant late-breaking developments involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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