Raphaël Glucksmann leads the French Socialist primary first-round market at 88% implied probability due to his consistent polling advantage among social-democratic voters and broader left-leaning samples ahead of the October 9-10 vote. As co-president of Place Publique, he benefits from cross-party support within the PS-Place Publique-GRS framework, a pro-European profile that resonates with the primary electorate, and positioning against alliances with La France Insoumise. Recent developments include the mid-September confirmation of five candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations, the validation of parrainages for Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal, and scheduled televised debates starting September 23. These factors reinforce trader consensus around Glucksmann while keeping secondary contenders in single digits.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRaphaël Glucksmann 88%
Olivier Faure 9%
Jérôme Guedj 5.1%
Ségolène Royal 3.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 10, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
88%
Olivier Faure
9%
Jérôme Guedj
5%
Ségolène Royal
4%
Emmanuel Maurel
2%
Philippe Brun
1%
Raphaël Glucksmann 88%
Olivier Faure 9%
Jérôme Guedj 5.1%
Ségolène Royal 3.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 10, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
$2,964 KL.
88%
Olivier Faure
$316 KL.
9%
Jérôme Guedj
$240 KL.
5%
Ségolène Royal
$773 KL.
4%
Emmanuel Maurel
$240 KL.
2%
Philippe Brun
$194 KL.
1%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the French Socialist primary first-round market at 88% implied probability due to his consistent polling advantage among social-democratic voters and broader left-leaning samples ahead of the October 9-10 vote. As co-president of Place Publique, he benefits from cross-party support within the PS-Place Publique-GRS framework, a pro-European profile that resonates with the primary electorate, and positioning against alliances with La France Insoumise. Recent developments include the mid-September confirmation of five candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations, the validation of parrainages for Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal, and scheduled televised debates starting September 23. These factors reinforce trader consensus around Glucksmann while keeping secondary contenders in single digits.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,728Ngày kết thúc
Oct 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the French Socialist primary first-round market at 88% implied probability due to his consistent polling advantage among social-democratic voters and broader left-leaning samples ahead of the October 9-10 vote. As co-president of Place Publique, he benefits from cross-party support within the PS-Place Publique-GRS framework, a pro-European profile that resonates with the primary electorate, and positioning against alliances with La France Insoumise. Recent developments include the mid-September confirmation of five candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations, the validation of parrainages for Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal, and scheduled televised debates starting September 23. These factors reinforce trader consensus around Glucksmann while keeping secondary contenders in single digits.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Khối lượng
$4,728Ngày kết thúc
Oct 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Raphaël Glucksmann leads the French Socialist primary first-round market at 88% implied probability due to his consistent polling advantage among social-democratic voters and broader left-leaning samples ahead of the October 9-10 vote. As co-president of Place Publique, he benefits from cross-party support within the PS-Place Publique-GRS framework, a pro-European profile that resonates with the primary electorate, and positioning against alliances with La France Insoumise. Recent developments include the mid-September confirmation of five candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations, the validation of parrainages for Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal, and scheduled televised debates starting September 23. These factors reinforce trader consensus around Glucksmann while keeping secondary contenders in single digits.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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