Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the seat's longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8 Democratic primary and enters the November 3 general against Republican Brenton Awa, who advanced unopposed in his primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge, or major local economic or policy disruptions that erode the incumbent's support base before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$63,531 KL.
$63,531 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$63,531 KL.
$63,531 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$43,095 KL.
96%
Republican Party
$20,436 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the seat's longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8 Democratic primary and enters the November 3 general against Republican Brenton Awa, who advanced unopposed in his primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge, or major local economic or policy disruptions that erode the incumbent's support base before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$63,531Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the seat's longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8 Democratic primary and enters the November 3 general against Republican Brenton Awa, who advanced unopposed in his primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge, or major local economic or policy disruptions that erode the incumbent's support base before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$63,531Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the seat's longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8 Democratic primary and enters the November 3 general against Republican Brenton Awa, who advanced unopposed in his primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, a pronounced national Republican surge, or major local economic or policy disruptions that erode the incumbent's support base before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp