The market-implied odds at 99.4% for "No" reflect traders' recognition of the overwhelming scientific consensus on Earth's spherical shape, backed by satellite imagery, gravitational data, and centuries of astronomical observations. This skin-in-the-game consensus treats the outcome as settled fact, with no credible recent developments or cultural shifts capable of altering the trajectory. Realistic upset scenarios would require an unprecedented global conspiracy or paradigm-shifting discovery contradicting established physics, patterns that have never materialized in informed prediction markets. Resolution hinges on verifiable evidence rather than awards campaigns, chart performance, or fan-driven narratives.