Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district after defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary with strong backing from President Trump and significant outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican performance, including a 19.5-point Trump margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus that favors Gallrein by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has not elected a Democrat since the early 2000s. No recent polling or major campaign developments have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such factors would require substantial movement to overcome the district’s partisan baseline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKY-04 House Election Winner
KY-04 House Election Winner
$44,895 KL.
$44,895 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Gallrein (R)
97%
Melissa Strange (D)
1%
$44,895 KL.
$44,895 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Gallrein (R)
$29,354 KL.
97%
Melissa Strange (D)
$15,541 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district after defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary with strong backing from President Trump and significant outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican performance, including a 19.5-point Trump margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus that favors Gallrein by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has not elected a Democrat since the early 2000s. No recent polling or major campaign developments have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such factors would require substantial movement to overcome the district’s partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$44,895Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district after defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary with strong backing from President Trump and significant outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican performance, including a 19.5-point Trump margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus that favors Gallrein by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has not elected a Democrat since the early 2000s. No recent polling or major campaign developments have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such factors would require substantial movement to overcome the district’s partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$44,895Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district after defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary with strong backing from President Trump and significant outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican performance, including a 19.5-point Trump margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus that favors Gallrein by a wide margin in the November 3 general election. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has not elected a Democrat since the early 2000s. No recent polling or major campaign developments have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such factors would require substantial movement to overcome the district’s partisan baseline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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