**No at 79.5%** reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any qualifying event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or a 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring shows the Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with no hurricanes forming by early September—the latest start on record—while Pacific activity has been elevated under lingering El Niño influences but has not produced U.S. landfalls meeting the threshold. Seismic data from USGS confirm multiple 7+ events, including the June Venezuela doublet and August Colombia quake, yet none have reached 8.5+. No major volcanic or meteor events have been recorded. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the high implied probability of “No” aligns with the historical rarity of these extreme thresholds in a single calendar year, tempered by ongoing hurricane-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% khả năng
$246,803 KL.
$246,803 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
21% khả năng
$246,803 KL.
$246,803 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 79.5%** reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any qualifying event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or a 10 kt+ meteor strike.
Official monitoring shows the Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with no hurricanes forming by early September—the latest start on record—while Pacific activity has been elevated under lingering El Niño influences but has not produced U.S. landfalls meeting the threshold. Seismic data from USGS confirm multiple 7+ events, including the June Venezuela doublet and August Colombia quake, yet none have reached 8.5+. No major volcanic or meteor events have been recorded.
With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the high implied probability of “No” aligns with the historical rarity of these extreme thresholds in a single calendar year, tempered by ongoing hurricane-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$246,803Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 79.5%** reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any qualifying event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or a 10 kt+ meteor strike.
Official monitoring shows the Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with no hurricanes forming by early September—the latest start on record—while Pacific activity has been elevated under lingering El Niño influences but has not produced U.S. landfalls meeting the threshold. Seismic data from USGS confirm multiple 7+ events, including the June Venezuela doublet and August Colombia quake, yet none have reached 8.5+. No major volcanic or meteor events have been recorded.
With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the high implied probability of “No” aligns with the historical rarity of these extreme thresholds in a single calendar year, tempered by ongoing hurricane-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$246,803Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**No at 79.5%** reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any qualifying event under the market’s strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or a 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring shows the Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with no hurricanes forming by early September—the latest start on record—while Pacific activity has been elevated under lingering El Niño influences but has not produced U.S. landfalls meeting the threshold. Seismic data from USGS confirm multiple 7+ events, including the June Venezuela doublet and August Colombia quake, yet none have reached 8.5+. No major volcanic or meteor events have been recorded. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the high implied probability of “No” aligns with the historical rarity of these extreme thresholds in a single calendar year, tempered by ongoing hurricane-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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