**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to Gaza operations, but enforcement remains highly unlikely in the near term.** Israel and the United States reject the court's jurisdiction, with Washington imposing sanctions on ICC officials and President Trump explicitly stating Netanyahu will not be detained on U.S. soil. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's earlier campaign pledge to arrest the prime minister during the September 2026 UN General Assembly was withdrawn in July after legal review found the city lacks authority, shifting any potential action to the federal level. Domestically, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial continues in Israeli courts, with his testimony completed in June 2026 after 98 hearings and judges urging prosecutors to drop certain bribery counts; pardon discussions have not produced results. No ICC member state has enforced the warrant during his travels, and Netanyahu has taken precautions such as skipping events in Rome Statute countries. These factors keep trader-implied probabilities low for arrest by late 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to physical custody despite the outstanding international warrant.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$26,870 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
<1%
December 31
7%
$26,870 KL.
September 30
$20,117 KL.
<1%
December 31
$6,753 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to Gaza operations, but enforcement remains highly unlikely in the near term.** Israel and the United States reject the court's jurisdiction, with Washington imposing sanctions on ICC officials and President Trump explicitly stating Netanyahu will not be detained on U.S. soil. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's earlier campaign pledge to arrest the prime minister during the September 2026 UN General Assembly was withdrawn in July after legal review found the city lacks authority, shifting any potential action to the federal level.
Domestically, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial continues in Israeli courts, with his testimony completed in June 2026 after 98 hearings and judges urging prosecutors to drop certain bribery counts; pardon discussions have not produced results. No ICC member state has enforced the warrant during his travels, and Netanyahu has taken precautions such as skipping events in Rome Statute countries. These factors keep trader-implied probabilities low for arrest by late 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to physical custody despite the outstanding international warrant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,870Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to Gaza operations, but enforcement remains highly unlikely in the near term.** Israel and the United States reject the court's jurisdiction, with Washington imposing sanctions on ICC officials and President Trump explicitly stating Netanyahu will not be detained on U.S. soil. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's earlier campaign pledge to arrest the prime minister during the September 2026 UN General Assembly was withdrawn in July after legal review found the city lacks authority, shifting any potential action to the federal level.
Domestically, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial continues in Israeli courts, with his testimony completed in June 2026 after 98 hearings and judges urging prosecutors to drop certain bribery counts; pardon discussions have not produced results. No ICC member state has enforced the warrant during his travels, and Netanyahu has taken precautions such as skipping events in Rome Statute countries. These factors keep trader-implied probabilities low for arrest by late 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to physical custody despite the outstanding international warrant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$26,870Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to Gaza operations, but enforcement remains highly unlikely in the near term.** Israel and the United States reject the court's jurisdiction, with Washington imposing sanctions on ICC officials and President Trump explicitly stating Netanyahu will not be detained on U.S. soil. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's earlier campaign pledge to arrest the prime minister during the September 2026 UN General Assembly was withdrawn in July after legal review found the city lacks authority, shifting any potential action to the federal level. Domestically, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial continues in Israeli courts, with his testimony completed in June 2026 after 98 hearings and judges urging prosecutors to drop certain bribery counts; pardon discussions have not produced results. No ICC member state has enforced the warrant during his travels, and Netanyahu has taken precautions such as skipping events in Rome Statute countries. These factors keep trader-implied probabilities low for arrest by late 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to physical custody despite the outstanding international warrant.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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