Oregon's 2026 Senate contest features incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley facing Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited general election polling available. This lack of competitiveness, typical for a midterm in a heavily Democratic state, contributes to trader focus on baseline turnout patterns rather than surge dynamics. Oregon's universal mail-in system has historically supported midterm participation near 60 percent of registered voters, while national midterm trends and lower campaign intensity in non-battlegrounds often moderate totals compared with presidential years. With roughly three million registered voters, outcomes near 1.6-1.8 million ballots reflect the balance between structural advantages and subdued enthusiasm, leaving room for shifts from weather, late mobilization, or concurrent ballot measures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOregon Senate Election: Turnout
Oregon Senate Election: Turnout
1.5M-1.6M 19.4%
1.7M-1.8M 14%
2.1M-2.2M 14%
2.2M+ 13%
<1.5M
42%
1.5M-1.6M
19%
1.6M-1.7M
6%
1.7M-1.8M
25%
1.8M-1.9M
7%
1.9M-2M
9%
2M-2.1M
16%
2.1M-2.2M
14%
2.2M+
13%
1.5M-1.6M 19.4%
1.7M-1.8M 14%
2.1M-2.2M 14%
2.2M+ 13%
<1.5M
42%
1.5M-1.6M
19%
1.6M-1.7M
6%
1.7M-1.8M
25%
1.8M-1.9M
7%
1.9M-2M
9%
2M-2.1M
16%
2.1M-2.2M
14%
2.2M+
13%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Oregon's 2026 Senate contest features incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley facing Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited general election polling available. This lack of competitiveness, typical for a midterm in a heavily Democratic state, contributes to trader focus on baseline turnout patterns rather than surge dynamics. Oregon's universal mail-in system has historically supported midterm participation near 60 percent of registered voters, while national midterm trends and lower campaign intensity in non-battlegrounds often moderate totals compared with presidential years. With roughly three million registered voters, outcomes near 1.6-1.8 million ballots reflect the balance between structural advantages and subdued enthusiasm, leaving room for shifts from weather, late mobilization, or concurrent ballot measures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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