Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures facing active federal grand jury probes, congressional scrutiny, or immigration enforcement actions, with implied probabilities ranging from roughly 10-50% for leading candidates such as John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil, and James Comey. Recent developments include Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court proceedings that could lead to rearrest or deportation before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, as well as former officials' Senate appearances and invocations of constitutional protections amid pandemic-related and intelligence inquiries. Broader enforcement trends, including federal fraud cases and ICE operations, shape positioning, while the compressed timeline to year-end limits room for new indictments to materialize. Most listed individuals carry low single-digit to low-teen probabilities, underscoring the high bar for arrest in the remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$424,613 KL.
Anthony Fauci
8%
John Brennan
24%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
13%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
18%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
8%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
6%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
4%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
10%
Lisa Cook
3%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$424,613 KL.
Anthony Fauci
$167,175 KL.
8%
John Brennan
$25,408 KL.
24%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,915 KL.
13%
Adam Schiff
$17,036 KL.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,681 KL.
2%
James Comey
$10,852 KL.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,385 KL.
18%
James Clapper
$8,469 KL.
12%
Letitia James
$4,399 KL.
8%
Hillary Clinton
$26,360 KL.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,889 KL.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 KL.
8%
Susan Rice
$304 KL.
9%
Candace Owens
$288 KL.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$39,441 KL.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,949 KL.
5%
John Kerry
$503 KL.
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 KL.
2%
Tom Homan
$42,112 KL.
4%
Kash Patel
$607 KL.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,290 KL.
10%
Lisa Cook
$4,042 KL.
3%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 KL.
11%
Joe Biden
$9,115 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures facing active federal grand jury probes, congressional scrutiny, or immigration enforcement actions, with implied probabilities ranging from roughly 10-50% for leading candidates such as John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil, and James Comey. Recent developments include Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court proceedings that could lead to rearrest or deportation before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, as well as former officials' Senate appearances and invocations of constitutional protections amid pandemic-related and intelligence inquiries. Broader enforcement trends, including federal fraud cases and ICE operations, shape positioning, while the compressed timeline to year-end limits room for new indictments to materialize. Most listed individuals carry low single-digit to low-teen probabilities, underscoring the high bar for arrest in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$424,613Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures facing active federal grand jury probes, congressional scrutiny, or immigration enforcement actions, with implied probabilities ranging from roughly 10-50% for leading candidates such as John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil, and James Comey. Recent developments include Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court proceedings that could lead to rearrest or deportation before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, as well as former officials' Senate appearances and invocations of constitutional protections amid pandemic-related and intelligence inquiries. Broader enforcement trends, including federal fraud cases and ICE operations, shape positioning, while the compressed timeline to year-end limits room for new indictments to materialize. Most listed individuals carry low single-digit to low-teen probabilities, underscoring the high bar for arrest in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$424,613Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures facing active federal grand jury probes, congressional scrutiny, or immigration enforcement actions, with implied probabilities ranging from roughly 10-50% for leading candidates such as John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil, and James Comey. Recent developments include Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court proceedings that could lead to rearrest or deportation before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, as well as former officials' Senate appearances and invocations of constitutional protections amid pandemic-related and intelligence inquiries. Broader enforcement trends, including federal fraud cases and ICE operations, shape positioning, while the compressed timeline to year-end limits room for new indictments to materialize. Most listed individuals carry low single-digit to low-teen probabilities, underscoring the high bar for arrest in the remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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